The 2024 MLB season is approaching its final stretch, and the race for the prestigious Cy Young award is heating up with just over five and a half weeks remaining. This year, voters are tasked with ranking pitchers from 1-5 on their ballots, and several names have emerged as front-runners in a season brimming with stellar pitching performances.
Tarik Skubal's Commanding Presence
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers is leading the charge with a compelling case. Skubal not only leads the majors in ERA and ERA+, but he also tops the American League in strikeouts, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and strikeout rate. Boasting a record of 14-4, Skubal has been a beacon of consistency for the Tigers. Remarkably, the team holds a 44-56 record in games where Skubal doesn't start, underscoring his value to his squad.
Skubal's dominance is further validated by his commanding lead in Baseball Reference's version of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and FanGraphs' leaderboard. Having taken his last turn on normal rest this season, Skubal has also set a new career high in innings pitched, making him a robust candidate for the Cy Young award.
Strong Contenders: Seth Lugo and Logan Gilbert
Seth Lugo has also impressed this season, pitching 166 2/3 innings with a 14-7 record, a 3.02 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. However, his recent form has been a concern; Lugo has posted a 5.24 ERA over his last seven starts, casting some doubt on his Cy Young ambitions.
Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert has quietly built a strong case with a 2.96 ERA, leading the league in WHIP at 0.88. Gilbert has logged a significant number of innings, second only to Lugo, and his early season performance helped the Seattle Mariners secure a ten-game lead in June. Unfortunately, the Mariners have dramatically stumbled since then, potentially impacting Gilbert's overall Cy Young prospects.
Comparing the Veterans: Corbin Burnes and Emmanuel Clase
Corbin Burnes continues to be a force for the Milwaukee Brewers with a 12-5 record, a 3.10 ERA, and 144 strikeouts over 153 2/3 innings. However, Burnes' recent struggles, highlighted by a 9.00 ERA in his three starts this month, might hinder his bid for the award.
Emmanuel Clase stands out in the closer role with 37 saves out of 40 opportunities, boasting a minuscule 0.63 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP. Clase's dominance in the late innings is evidenced by his 49 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings, making him a potential dark horse in the Cy Young race despite being a reliever.
Framber Valdez and the Rising Stars
Framber Valdez has also made significant strides with a 13-5 record, a 3.20 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP over 137 2/3 innings. While Valdez's numbers are impressive, they may not be enough to eclipse some of the other top contenders.
Young pitchers like Paul Skenes and Hunter Greene have shown great potential this season. Skenes, with a 7-2 record, a 2.30 ERA, and 121 strikeouts in 98 innings, has posted a 4.0 WAR, signaling a bright future ahead. Greene, despite leading the majors in hit batsmen and battling an elbow injury, has amassed a 9-4 record with a 2.83 ERA and 162 strikeouts in 143 1/3 innings.
Other Notable Performances
Veteran pitcher Chris Sale commands attention, leading the league in wins, strikeouts, FIP, strikeout rate, and FanGraphs' WAR. However, Sale's innings pitched don't rank in the top 10, which could impact his Cy Young chances.
Logan Webb, leading the league with 164 2/3 innings pitched, has compiled an 11-8 record and a 3.17 ERA, consistently delivering for his team. Conversely, Zack Wheeler's sterling season with a 12-5 record, a league-best 2.72 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and 162 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings, makes him a strong contender in the Cy Young narrative.
Ronel Blanco and Reynaldo López also deserve mention for their exceptional seasons. Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his first outing, holds a 9-6 record with a 2.89 ERA and 130 strikeouts over 134 innings. López has been a revelation out of the bullpen, with a 2.06 ERA in 104 2/3 innings.
As the season edges towards its conclusion, the Cy Young race remains wide open. Each contender has showcased exceptional talent, and the next few weeks will be pivotal in determining who stands atop the pitching mound in 2024.