As the dust of the Major League Baseball season settles, attention now turns to the offseason, where front office strategies come into sharper focus. With an eye on building competitive rosters without overshooting budgets, teams are approaching a crucial date—Friday, November 22—the deadline to make pivotal decisions concerning their arbitration-eligible players. This deadline often sets the tone for the offseason, aligning financial strategies with on-field ambitions.
Understanding Arbitration and the Criteria
In the complex landscape of MLB contract negotiations, arbitration stands out as a key mechanism for players to secure higher salaries than the league minimum, which they start with during their nascent years in the big leagues. Typically, players become eligible for arbitration after three years of Major League service time. However, a noteworthy subset of players—dubbed "Super Two" players—reach arbitration eligibility after just two years. These players have not only impressed on the field but also ranked within the top 22 percent of their peer group in terms of performance and service time.
This system empowers players to negotiate salaries that reflect their contributions, often leading to significant pay raises. However, it also poses challenges for teams, which must assess whether the potential salary aligns with a player's perceived value. When the proposed salary appears to outpace the player's value, teams might opt to non-tender the player, effectively releasing them into free agency.
Previous Non-Tender Decisions
Last season's non-tender deadline saw several players, such as Tim Hill, Spencer Turnbull, Cooper Criswell, and Nick Senzel, become free agents. These decisions illustrate the delicate balance teams must navigate between financial constraints and roster needs, highlighting the potential impact of these choices on both the players and the teams.
Projected Salaries for 2023
As teams gear up for the 2023 deadline, several players are at the center of arbitration considerations due to their projected salaries. Outfielder Chas McCormick is expected to secure a contract with a projected salary of $3.3 million, reflecting his value to the team. Similarly, Alek Manoah, recognized for his skillful pitching, is anticipated to receive a tender contract with a salary pegged at $2.4 million.
For reliever David Bednar, an impressive projected salary of $6.6 million is on the cards, underscoring the importance of consistent bullpen performance. On the other side, young talents like Triston McKenzie and Dylan Carlson are projected to command salaries of $2.4 million and $2.7 million, respectively, as they continue to develop their on-field prowess.
Austin Hays and Andrew Vaughn, both promising hitters, have projected salaries of $6.4 million each, reflecting their growth and contributions. Meanwhile, Paul Blackburn's projected salary of $4.4 million indicates the confidence placed in his ability to anchor the pitching rotation. At the upper end, Cal Quantrill’s projection of a $9 million salary signifies his standing as a key player in the rotation.
Rounding out this list is Akil Baddoo, whose anticipated $1.6 million salary reflects both potential and performance, showing promise for future seasons.
These salary projections not only illuminate the possible financial commitments teams might make but also highlight the players' expected roles in the upcoming season. For teams, capitalizing on these high-stakes arbitration decisions is crucial in shaping competitive and effective rosters. The coming days will undoubtedly see team executives weighing each player's projected impact against financial flexibility.
As the arbitration deadline looms, the baseball world attentively waits to see how these decisions will play out, knowing that the reverberations of these financial negotiations will be felt well into the upcoming season. Teams must balance the books while still aiming for that coveted postseason success, ensuring the intricate dance of baseball economics continues to captivate fans and analysts alike.